Investing During War: Focus on What You Can Control
/By Shelley Murasko
I find the current conflict with Iran more unsettling than others in my lifetime, and you may be feeling the same way right now. Maybe it’s the lack of a clearly defined objective or end point that makes this feel like something that could stretch on far longer than anyone intends.
The human cost is already significant and, like many parents, having a child of military age makes it all feel closer to home. Promises like “no boots on the ground” are reassuring in the moment, but history has a way of humbling those kinds of statements.
And yet, in contrast to the headlines, the stock market has been relatively steady. As of mid-March, portfolios are holding up. Broad U.S. equities are slightly negative year to date, while international stocks, small-cap value, and bonds are modestly positive. Certain areas—technology, growth, and travel—have come under pressure, while energy, defense, and infrastructure-related sectors are showing strength.
None of this is especially surprising. Historically, markets have often performed reasonably well during periods of conflict, even when the backdrop feels anything but stable. For investors, it’s important to remember that unsettling headlines don’t always translate into poor long-term outcomes.
Knowing that stocks tend to hold up during wars doesn’t mean the concern goes away, but it can change how we respond to it as investors.
When I feel that underlying worry, I find myself coming back to the same place: focusing on the things I can actually control.
Start with Visibility
For me, one of the most grounding exercises is reviewing my family’s spending, and it’s something I recommend to clients during uncertain times.
I’ve used the personal finance app Monarch Money for several years now to provide a clear picture of where our money is going and how it aligns with what we value. The reality, which I’m reminded of every time I look at it, is that most of our spending is not random - it’s intentional.
A large portion is tied up in major categories like taxes, education, housing, and travel. About 60% falls into what I’d consider non-discretionary: mortgage, property taxes, insurance, groceries, medical, and basic utilities.
That alone reframes the conversation. It’s not about “cutting back everywhere.” It’s about understanding where the important decisions are being made. For most households, that clarity can reduce anxiety and highlight where small changes can make a real difference.
Look for Opportunities at the Margins
Even with a well-structured plan, there are always areas to refine. In fact, that’s often where the biggest opportunities are. A recent spending review using an artificial intelligence tool highlighted a few things. In my experience, these are the areas where many families can make the most significant improvements.
Our day-to-day spending is quite disciplined - dining out, shopping, and coffee are all relatively low
The largest discretionary category is travel, which is more of a lifestyle choice than a leak
Child-related expenses and activities are meaningful and worth periodically reassessing
For most investors, the real opportunity doesn’t lie in small cuts, but in larger, more strategic adjustments.
Improving tax efficiency wherever possible
Each year offers a chance to maximize 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, 529 college plans, and Health Savings Accounts at the increased contribution levels. Being over 50 creates even more opportunity to save.
Being more thoughtful about how and when we travel, ensuring we plan and take advantage of rewards programs.
For a family of four with extended family out of state, Southwest Airlines’ Companion Pass® program has saved us thousands.
Occasionally stepping back and evaluating larger commitments, such as education, to ensure they’re delivering the value we expect
Building on the education our parents provided, we want to pass that legacy forward. We’ve become more intentional with our spending, prioritizing public education where possible and approaching college planning carefully to ensure our investments lead to the best possible outcomes.
Keep a Close Eye on Cash Flow
In times like this, I pay more attention to cash flow than usual. This habit can be especially helpful for investors navigating uncertainty. It’s a simple but powerful exercise, making sure there’s enough in the right accounts to cover what’s coming in the next few weeks or months. It removes a layer of uncertainty that doesn’t need to be there.
Check In on Debt and Progress
There’s also something reassuring about looking at debt balances and seeing steady progress. In our case, watching a 15-year mortgage continue to decline, even at a low rate, is a reminder that not all financial movement is tied to the market. For many households, this can provide a sense of progress even when markets feel unpredictable.
Review Investments with Perspective
Even though I spend much of my day looking at client portfolios, I don’t constantly monitor my own. During periods of uncertainty, it’s helpful to confirm that everything is aligned.
This is something I often walk through with clients, ensuring proper diversification between U.S. and international markets, exposure across company sizes, and an allocation that still makes sense for their financial goals and stage of life.
The reality is that wars are unpredictable, and their broader impacts are difficult to measure in real time. Markets may react in ways that feel disconnected from the news cycle, but over longer periods, they tend to reflect resilience.
For most investors, the most effective response isn’t trying to predict what happens next. It’s making sure the fundamentals at home are solid - that spending is aligned with priorities, cash flow is in order, and investments are positioned for the long term.
In volatile times, that’s what provides a sense of stability: not control over the world, but confidence in how you’re navigating it.
If you’re feeling uncertain right now, start by focusing on what you can control: your spending, your savings strategy, and your investment alignment.
I’m always here to help, so reach out anytime if you’d like help thinking through your options and making sure everything is aligned with your goals.
RISKS
Investments involve risks. The investment return and principal value of an investment may fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. Investors are not able to invest directly into a stock index.
